Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Dont believe the hype...

So I've been seeing these polls (Times and Newsweek) showing Bush with an 11% lead (a convention bounce). Well lets see how that translates into Electoral college totals:

Election held today: Bush 231 electoral votes; Kerry 307

Another count: Bush 222, Kerry 264

Now heres a qualifier - dont get your hopes up yet: Kerry's lead in 3 of these states is within the margin of error (statistical tie). But remember, you only need to win by one vote to win all the electoral votes in that state.

So Bush's overall popularity vs. Kerry did go up, but as Gore found out in 2000, the popular vote does not count. Also, an 11% lead can dry up in a WADC second. Ask Bush Sr... I've said this before and it bares repeating: Daddy Bush's 90% approval rating in June 1991 dried up to nothing in only 4 months, and he lost!

Keep fighting, Read the platforms, and dont believe the hype! wrong and prosper

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